Progresso 1–1 Bravos do Maquis FC: Result & Stats

Progresso

FT

1 – 1

Bravos do Maquis FC

4/1/2012

Girabola · Round 5Estádio Provincial da Huíla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Progresso49%

×Draw33%

Bravos do Maquis FC18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgressoExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.53

Progresso

1.08

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.53

Progresso creates 104% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

0.72

0.33

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Progresso

1.00

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.72

allows per match

Progresso

0.33

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–111%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Progresso or draw

82%

Progresso or Bravos do Maquis FC

67%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

51%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+

20%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals

66%

Progresso 2+ goals

29%

Progresso 3+ goals

10%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

41%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

10%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)

73%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.00 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.72 + Progresso defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Progresso scores more

49%

level

33%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

18%

Progresso at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresso vs Bravos do Maquis FC

Progresso and Bravos do Maquis FC drew 1-1 in Girabola on April 1, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Provincial da Huíla.

Progresso vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2012

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Progresso vs Bravos do Maquis FC