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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Progresso — Girabola 2025

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
3 – 0
Progresso
Progresso
3/13/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC68%
×Draw22%
Progresso10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.77
Progresso
0.51

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 247% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.20
Progresso
0.17

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.84
Progresso
2.33

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
90%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Progresso
78%
Draw or Progresso
32%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
40%
Progresso wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
83%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
53%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
26%
Progresso 1+ goals
40%
Progresso 2+ goals
9%
Progresso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
87%
Progresso (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.20 + Progresso defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Progresso attack 0.17 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
68%
level
22%
Progresso scores more
10%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Progresso

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Progresso 3-0 in Girabola on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.