Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Velez Sarsfield

Instituto Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

2/3/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 3Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Instituto Cordoba40%

×Draw30%

Velez Sarsfield30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.96

Instituto Cordoba

1.14

Velez Sarsfield

0.96

Instituto Cordoba creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 121 away

1.16

creates per match

1.02

0.90

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.16

Velez Sarsfield

1.02

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.90

Velez Sarsfield

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

70%

Instituto Cordoba or Velez Sarsfield

70%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

60%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

17%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

68%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

32%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

11%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

62%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

25%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

57%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.16 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.02 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

40%

level

30%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

30%

Instituto Cordoba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff