Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
10/5/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Instituto Cordoba39%
×Draw31%
San Lorenzo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Cordoba
1.07
San Lorenzo
0.88

Instituto Cordoba creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 120 away

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba
1.16
San Lorenzo
0.86

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba
0.90
San Lorenzo
0.98

finishing

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par
San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw
71%
Instituto Cordoba or San Lorenzo
69%
Draw or San Lorenzo
61%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
16%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
66%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
29%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
9%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
59%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
22%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
57%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.98 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.16 + San Lorenzo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more
39%
level
31%
San Lorenzo scores more
29%

Instituto Cordoba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 2–0 San Lorenzo

Instituto Cordoba beat San Lorenzo 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.