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Instituto Cordoba vs Atletico Tucuman — League #1032 2026

Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
1/30/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Instituto Cordoba58%
×Draw25%
Atletico Tucuman17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Cordoba
1.63
Atletico Tucuman
0.75

Instituto Cordoba creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba
1.25
Atletico Tucuman
0.50

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba
1.00
Atletico Tucuman
2.00

finishing

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par
Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw
83%
Instituto Cordoba or Atletico Tucuman
75%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
42%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
32%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
80%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
48%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
22%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
53%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
17%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
77%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.25 + Atletico Tucuman defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Atletico Tucuman attack 0.50 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more
58%
level
25%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
17%

Instituto Cordoba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1032: Instituto Cordoba 3–0 Atletico Tucuman

Instituto Cordoba beat Atletico Tucuman 3-0 in League #1032 on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.