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Insieme Formia vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
1/30/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Comunale di Formia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Insieme Formia29%
×Draw26%
Team Nuova Florida45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insieme Formia
1.15
Team Nuova Florida
1.48

Team Nuova Florida creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

creates per match

Insieme Formia
0.88
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Insieme Formia
1.71
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Insieme Formia+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insieme Formia ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Insieme Formia or draw
55%
Insieme Formia or Team Nuova Florida
74%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
71%

Winning margin

Insieme Formia wins by 2+
12%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Insieme Formia 1+ goals
68%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
32%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
11%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
77%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
43%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
40%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insieme Formia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insieme Formia attack 0.88 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Insieme Formia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Insieme Formia scores more
29%
level
26%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
45%

Team Nuova Florida at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Insieme Formia 0–2 Team Nuova Florida

Team Nuova Florida beat Insieme Formia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Formia in Formia.