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Insieme Formia vs Lanusei — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
FT
1 – 0
Lanusei
Lanusei
11/28/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 11Stadio Comunale di Formia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Insieme Formia37%
×Draw28%
Lanusei35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insieme Formia
1.22
Lanusei
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Insieme Formia
0.88
Lanusei
0.65

allows per match

Insieme Formia
1.71
Lanusei
1.55

finishing

Insieme Formia+0.00on par
Lanusei+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insieme Formia ↓

Lanusei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Insieme Formia or draw
65%
Insieme Formia or Lanusei
72%
Draw or Lanusei
63%

Winning margin

Insieme Formia wins by 2+
16%
Lanusei wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Insieme Formia 1+ goals
70%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
34%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
12%
Lanusei 1+ goals
69%
Lanusei 2+ goals
33%
Lanusei 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
51%
Lanusei (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insieme Formia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Lanusei away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insieme Formia attack 0.88 + Lanusei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lanusei attack 0.65 + Insieme Formia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Insieme Formia scores more
37%
level
28%
Lanusei scores more
35%

Insieme Formia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Insieme Formia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Insieme Formia 1–0 Lanusei

Insieme Formia beat Lanusei 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Formia in Formia.