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Insieme Formia vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
4/20/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 26Stadio Comunale di Formia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Insieme Formia37%
×Draw27%
Atletico Uri37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insieme Formia
1.29
Atletico Uri
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Insieme Formia
0.88
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Insieme Formia
1.71
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Insieme Formia+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insieme Formia ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Insieme Formia or draw
63%
Insieme Formia or Atletico Uri
73%
Draw or Atletico Uri
63%

Winning margin

Insieme Formia wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Insieme Formia 1+ goals
72%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
37%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
37%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
50%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insieme Formia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insieme Formia attack 0.88 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Insieme Formia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Insieme Formia scores more
37%
level
27%
Atletico Uri scores more
37%

Insieme Formia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Insieme Formia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Insieme Formia 1–0 Atletico Uri

Insieme Formia beat Atletico Uri 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Formia in Formia.