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Insieme Formia vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Albalonga
Albalonga
12/8/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Comunale di Formia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Insieme Formia30%
×Draw26%
Albalonga45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insieme Formia
1.18
Albalonga
1.50

Albalonga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Insieme Formia
0.88
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Insieme Formia
1.71
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Insieme Formia+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insieme Formia ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Insieme Formia or draw
55%
Insieme Formia or Albalonga
74%
Draw or Albalonga
70%

Winning margin

Insieme Formia wins by 2+
12%
Albalonga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Insieme Formia 1+ goals
69%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
33%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
12%
Albalonga 1+ goals
78%
Albalonga 2+ goals
44%
Albalonga 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
40%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insieme Formia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insieme Formia attack 0.88 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Insieme Formia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Insieme Formia scores more
30%
level
26%
Albalonga scores more
45%

Albalonga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Insieme Formia 1–1 Albalonga

Insieme Formia and Albalonga drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Formia in Formia.