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Innstranden vs Ulfstind — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Innstranden
Innstranden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ulfstind
Ulfstind
9/1/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 19Mørkvedlia kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden40%
×Draw20%
Ulfstind40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innstranden
2.27
Ulfstind
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Innstranden
1.69
Ulfstind
1.77

allows per match

Innstranden
2.77
Ulfstind
2.85

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par
Ulfstind+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Ulfstind →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw
60%
Innstranden or Ulfstind
80%
Draw or Ulfstind
60%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+
23%
Ulfstind wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals
90%
Innstranden 2+ goals
66%
Innstranden 3+ goals
39%
Ulfstind 1+ goals
90%
Ulfstind 2+ goals
66%
Ulfstind 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)
50%
Ulfstind (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Ulfstind away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.69 + Ulfstind defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ulfstind attack 1.77 + Innstranden defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Innstranden scores more
40%
level
20%
Ulfstind scores more
40%

Innstranden at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Innstranden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Innstranden vs Ulfstind

Innstranden beat Ulfstind 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Mørkvedlia kunstgress in Bodø.