Innstranden 2–2 Tiller: Result & Stats

Innstranden

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tiller

9/24/2022

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 22Mørkvedlia kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden25%

×Draw19%

Tiller56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InnstrandenExpected goals in this matchTiller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.58

Innstranden

1.69

Tiller

2.58

Tiller creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

1.15

creates per match

2.00

3.15

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Innstranden

1.15

Tiller

2.00

allows per match

Innstranden

3.15

Tiller

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par

Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Tiller →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw

44%

Innstranden or Tiller

81%

Draw or Tiller

75%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+

12%

Tiller wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals

82%

Innstranden 2+ goals

50%

Innstranden 3+ goals

24%

Tiller 1+ goals

92%

Tiller 2+ goals

72%

Tiller 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)

31%

Tiller (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.15 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tiller attack 2.00 + Innstranden defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Innstranden scores more

25%

level

19%

Tiller scores more

56%

Tiller at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff