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Innstranden vs Steinkjer — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Innstranden
Innstranden
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Steinkjer
Steinkjer
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 26Mørkvedlia kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden41%
×Draw19%
Steinkjer40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innstranden
2.37
Steinkjer
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Innstranden
1.15
Steinkjer
1.50

allows per match

Innstranden
3.15
Steinkjer
3.58

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par
Steinkjer+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Steinkjer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw
60%
Innstranden or Steinkjer
81%
Draw or Steinkjer
59%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+
24%
Steinkjer wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals
91%
Innstranden 2+ goals
68%
Innstranden 3+ goals
42%
Steinkjer 1+ goals
90%
Steinkjer 2+ goals
67%
Steinkjer 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)
51%
Steinkjer (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Steinkjer away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.15 + Steinkjer defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.37

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Innstranden defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Innstranden scores more
41%
level
19%
Steinkjer scores more
40%

Innstranden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Innstranden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Innstranden vs Steinkjer

Steinkjer beat Innstranden 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Mørkvedlia kunstgress in Bodø.