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Innstranden vs Hønefoss — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Innstranden
Innstranden
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hønefoss
Hønefoss
10/6/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 24Mørkvedlia kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden9%
×Draw12%
Hønefoss79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innstranden
1.16
Hønefoss
3.46

Hønefoss creates 198% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Innstranden
1.69
Hønefoss
4.15

allows per match

Innstranden
2.77
Hønefoss
0.62

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par
Hønefoss+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Hønefoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw
21%
Innstranden or Hønefoss
88%
Draw or Hønefoss
91%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+
3%
Hønefoss wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals
69%
Innstranden 2+ goals
32%
Innstranden 3+ goals
11%
Hønefoss 1+ goals
97%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
85%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)
10%
Hønefoss (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Hønefoss away — creates 4.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.69 + Hønefoss defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hønefoss attack 4.15 + Innstranden defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Innstranden scores more
9%
level
12%
Hønefoss scores more
79%

Hønefoss at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Innstranden 0–3 Hønefoss

Hønefoss beat Innstranden 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Mørkvedlia kunstgress in Bodø.