Innstranden 1–2 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Innstranden

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fredrikstad II

9/14/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 21Mørkvedlia kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden41%

×Draw20%

Fredrikstad II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InnstrandenExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.04

Innstranden

2.12

Fredrikstad II

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.69

creates per match

1.31

2.77

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Innstranden

1.69

Fredrikstad II

1.31

allows per match

Innstranden

2.77

Fredrikstad II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw

62%

Innstranden or Fredrikstad II

80%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

59%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+

23%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals

88%

Innstranden 2+ goals

62%

Innstranden 3+ goals

35%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

87%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

60%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)

52%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.69 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.12

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Innstranden defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Innstranden scores more

41%

level

20%

Fredrikstad II scores more

38%

Innstranden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Innstranden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff