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Innstranden vs Bodø / Glimt II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Innstranden
Innstranden
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
4/17/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 2Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden36%
×Draw20%
Bodø / Glimt II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innstranden
2.01
Bodø / Glimt II
2.21

Bodø / Glimt II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Innstranden
1.15
Bodø / Glimt II
1.27

allows per match

Innstranden
3.15
Bodø / Glimt II
2.88

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw
56%
Innstranden or Bodø / Glimt II
80%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt II
64%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+
19%
Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals
87%
Innstranden 2+ goals
59%
Innstranden 3+ goals
32%
Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
89%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
65%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)
45%
Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.15 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.01

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Innstranden defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Innstranden scores more
36%
level
20%
Bodø / Glimt II scores more
44%

Bodø / Glimt II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Innstranden vs Bodø / Glimt II

Bodø / Glimt II beat Innstranden 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodø.