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Innsbrucker AC vs Mayrhofen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Innsbrucker AC
Innsbrucker AC
FT
2 – 2
Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
7/30/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 1ASKÖ-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Innsbrucker AC53%
×Draw19%
Mayrhofen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innsbrucker AC
2.50
Mayrhofen
1.77

Innsbrucker AC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Innsbrucker AC
2.19
Mayrhofen
1.93

allows per match

Innsbrucker AC
1.60
Mayrhofen
2.80

finishing

Innsbrucker AC+0.00on par
Mayrhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innsbrucker AC ↓

Mayrhofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Innsbrucker AC or draw
73%
Innsbrucker AC or Mayrhofen
81%
Draw or Mayrhofen
47%

Winning margin

Innsbrucker AC wins by 2+
34%
Mayrhofen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Innsbrucker AC 1+ goals
92%
Innsbrucker AC 2+ goals
71%
Innsbrucker AC 3+ goals
45%
Mayrhofen 1+ goals
83%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
53%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Innsbrucker AC (draw refunded)
66%
Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innsbrucker AC at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.60 · 72 matches

Mayrhofen away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innsbrucker AC attack 2.19 + Mayrhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.50

Mayrhofen attack 1.93 + Innsbrucker AC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Innsbrucker AC scores more
53%
level
19%
Mayrhofen scores more
27%

Innsbrucker AC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Innsbrucker AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Innsbrucker AC vs Mayrhofen

Innsbrucker AC and Mayrhofen drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at ASKÖ-Sportplatz in Innsbruck.