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Innsbrucker AC vs Kematen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Innsbrucker AC
Innsbrucker AC
FT
1 – 1
Kematen
Kematen
8/25/2024Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 3ASKÖ-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Innsbrucker AC49%
×Draw21%
Kematen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innsbrucker AC
2.17
Kematen
1.66

Innsbrucker AC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 86 away

creates per match

Innsbrucker AC
2.19
Kematen
1.72

allows per match

Innsbrucker AC
1.60
Kematen
2.15

finishing

Innsbrucker AC+0.00on par
Kematen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innsbrucker AC ↓

Kematen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Innsbrucker AC or draw
70%
Innsbrucker AC or Kematen
79%
Draw or Kematen
51%

Winning margin

Innsbrucker AC wins by 2+
29%
Kematen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Innsbrucker AC 1+ goals
89%
Innsbrucker AC 2+ goals
64%
Innsbrucker AC 3+ goals
36%
Kematen 1+ goals
81%
Kematen 2+ goals
49%
Kematen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Innsbrucker AC (draw refunded)
62%
Kematen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innsbrucker AC at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.60 · 72 matches

Kematen away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.15 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innsbrucker AC attack 2.19 + Kematen defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kematen attack 1.72 + Innsbrucker AC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Innsbrucker AC scores more
49%
level
21%
Kematen scores more
30%

Innsbrucker AC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Innsbrucker AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Innsbrucker AC 1–1 Kematen

Innsbrucker AC and Kematen drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at ASKÖ-Sportplatz in Innsbruck.