Innsbrucker AC 5–3 Fügen: Result & Stats

Innsbrucker AC

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Fügen

10/26/2024

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 12ASKÖ-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Innsbrucker AC45%

×Draw22%

Fügen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Innsbrucker ACExpected goals in this matchFügen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.69

Innsbrucker AC

1.98

Fügen

1.69

Innsbrucker AC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

2.19

creates per match

1.78

1.60

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Innsbrucker AC

2.19

Fügen

1.78

allows per match

Innsbrucker AC

1.60

Fügen

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Innsbrucker AC+0.00on par

Fügen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innsbrucker AC ↓

Fügen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Innsbrucker AC or draw

67%

Innsbrucker AC or Fügen

78%

Draw or Fügen

55%

Winning margin

Innsbrucker AC wins by 2+

25%

Fügen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Innsbrucker AC 1+ goals

86%

Innsbrucker AC 2+ goals

59%

Innsbrucker AC 3+ goals

31%

Fügen 1+ goals

82%

Fügen 2+ goals

50%

Fügen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Innsbrucker AC (draw refunded)

57%

Fügen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innsbrucker AC at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.60 · 72 matches

Fügen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innsbrucker AC attack 2.19 + Fügen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fügen attack 1.78 + Innsbrucker AC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Innsbrucker AC scores more

45%

level

22%

Fügen scores more

33%

Innsbrucker AC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Innsbrucker AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff