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Inner Mongolia Caoshang. vs Qingdao Red Lions — League Two 2026

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
B. Zhou 40'
11/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 3Duyun International Football Town Field 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.20%
×Draw32%
Qingdao Red Lions49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.60
Qingdao Red Lions
1.13

Qingdao Red Lions creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.14
Qingdao Red Lions
0.96

allows per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.29
Qingdao Red Lions
1.07

finishing

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par
Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–120%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or draw
51%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or Qingdao Red Lions
68%
Draw or Qingdao Red Lions
80%

Winning margin

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
5%
Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
45%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
12%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
2%
Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
68%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
31%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
29%
Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. at home — creates 0.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.14 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.60

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
20%
level
32%
Qingdao Red Lions scores more
49%

Qingdao Red Lions at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
B. Zhou
43'
Liu Xuanchen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 0–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Qingdao Red Lions beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1-0 in League Two on November 12, 2022.

Goals: B. Zhou (40').

The match was played at Duyun International Football Town Field 12 in Duyun.