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Inner Mongolia Caoshang. vs Hainan Star — League Two 2022

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hainan Star
Hainan Star
7/16/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Duyun International Football Town No. 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.32%
×Draw30%
Hainan Star37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.98
Hainan Star
1.08

Hainan Star creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 48 away

creates per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.14
Hainan Star
0.88

allows per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.29
Hainan Star
1.81

finishing

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par
Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. ↓

Hainan Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or draw
63%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or Hainan Star
70%
Draw or Hainan Star
68%

Winning margin

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
12%
Hainan Star wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
62%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
26%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
8%
Hainan Star 1+ goals
66%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
29%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
46%
Hainan Star (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. at home — creates 0.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.14 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 0.98

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
32%
level
30%
Hainan Star scores more
37%

Hainan Star at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 0–1 Hainan Star

Hainan Star beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1-0 in League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Duyun International Football Town No. 7 in Duyun.