Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inhulets vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Inhulets
Inhulets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
11/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Inhulets27%
×Draw27%
Zorya Luhansk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inhulets
0.98
Zorya Luhansk
1.37

Zorya Luhansk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 98 away

creates per match

Inhulets
0.73
Zorya Luhansk
1.62

allows per match

Inhulets
1.12
Zorya Luhansk
1.23

finishing

Inhulets+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw
54%
Inhulets or Zorya Luhansk
73%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
73%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+
10%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals
62%
Inhulets 2+ goals
26%
Inhulets 3+ goals
8%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
75%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
40%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)
37%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 0.73 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + Inhulets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inhulets scores more
27%
level
27%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
46%

Zorya Luhansk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inhulets 1 – 0 Zorya Luhansk

Inhulets beat Zorya Luhansk 1-0 in Premier League on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kiev.