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Inhulets vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka — Persha Liga 2019

Inhulets
Inhulets
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
10/19/2025Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 12Stadion Inhulets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Inhulets54%
×Draw25%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inhulets
1.65
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.95

Inhulets creates 74% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 41 away

creates per match

Inhulets
2.02
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.05

allows per match

Inhulets
0.84
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27

finishing

Inhulets+0.00on par
Viktoriya Mykolaivka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Viktoriya Mykolaivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw
78%
Inhulets or Viktoriya Mykolaivka
75%
Draw or Viktoriya Mykolaivka
46%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+
29%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals
81%
Inhulets 2+ goals
49%
Inhulets 3+ goals
23%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1+ goals
61%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2+ goals
25%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)
71%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

Viktoriya Mykolaivka away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 2.02 + Viktoriya Mykolaivka defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.65

Viktoriya Mykolaivka attack 1.05 + Inhulets defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Inhulets scores more
54%
level
25%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka scores more
22%

Inhulets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Inhulets 4–2 Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Inhulets beat Viktoriya Mykolaivka 4-2 in Persha Liga on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Inhulets in Petrove.