Inhulets 0–1 Obolon'-Brovar: Result & Stats

Inhulets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Obolon'-Brovar

K. Bychek 14'

4/4/2025

Premier League · Round 23Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inhulets31%

×Draw27%

Obolon'-Brovar41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InhuletsExpected goals in this matchObolon'-Brovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.34

Inhulets

1.13

Obolon'-Brovar

1.34

Obolon'-Brovar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

0.72

creates per match

0.95

1.73

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Inhulets

0.72

Obolon'-Brovar

0.95

allows per match

Inhulets

1.73

Obolon'-Brovar

1.54

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Inhulets-0.12scores less

Obolon'-Brovar+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Obolon'-Brovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw

59%

Inhulets or Obolon'-Brovar

73%

Draw or Obolon'-Brovar

69%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+

13%

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals

68%

Inhulets 2+ goals

31%

Inhulets 3+ goals

11%

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

74%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

39%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)

43%

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.73 · 5 matches

Obolon'-Brovar away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 0.72 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.13

Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.95 + Inhulets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inhulets scores more

31%

level

27%

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

41%

Obolon'-Brovar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Obolon'-Brovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

K. Bychek

Obolon'-Brovar · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

K. Bychek↳ D. Ustymenko

37'

Ilya Gadzhuk

46'

I. Losenko← I. Hadzhuk

46'

V. Bliznichenko← K. Bychek

62'

T. Moroz← R. Chernenko

66'

A. Benediuk← V. Dubilei

66'

S. Kyslenko← B. Mohylnyi

70'

O. Slobodian← V. Hrusha

70'

S. Sukhanov← D. Ustymenko

78'

Stanislav Malysh

79'

V. Farasieienko← V. Katrych

87'

V. Chaban← O. Pushkariov

89'

Serhiy Kyslenko

90+3'

Taras Moroz

90'

D. Karas← M. Hrysio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InhuletsObolon'-Brovar

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots13

0.40Expected Goals (xG)1.29

5Corners5

20Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots13

1On Target1

6Off Target7

3Blocked5

4Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

326Total Passes283

259Accurate Passes217

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Inhulets vs Obolon'-Brovar

Obolon'-Brovar beat Inhulets 1-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2025.

Goals: K. Bychek (14').

Inhulets controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Obolon Arena in Kyiv.

Inhulets vs Obolon'-Brovar — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Inhulets vs Obolon'-Brovar