Inhulets 2–1 Livyi Bereh: Result & Stats

Inhulets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Livyi Bereh

V. Farasieienko 90+2'

I. Losenko 44'

Sidney 64'

5/12/2025

Premier League · Round 28CSC Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inhulets33%

×Draw28%

Livyi Bereh39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InhuletsExpected goals in this matchLivyi Bereh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.25

Inhulets

1.11

Livyi Bereh

1.25

Livyi Bereh creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

0.72

creates per match

0.78

1.73

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Inhulets

0.72

Livyi Bereh

0.78

allows per match

Inhulets

1.73

Livyi Bereh

1.51

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Inhulets-0.12scores less

Livyi Bereh-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Livyi Bereh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw

61%

Inhulets or Livyi Bereh

72%

Draw or Livyi Bereh

67%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+

13%

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals

67%

Inhulets 2+ goals

30%

Inhulets 3+ goals

10%

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals

71%

Livyi Bereh 2+ goals

36%

Livyi Bereh 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)

45%

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.73 · 5 matches

Livyi Bereh away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.51 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 0.72 + Livyi Bereh defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.11

Livyi Bereh attack 0.78 + Inhulets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inhulets scores more

33%

level

28%

Livyi Bereh scores more

39%

Livyi Bereh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Malysh

Inhulets · D

7.7

Match Events

44'

I. Losenko↳ O. Pushkariov

49'

Ruslan Dedukh

52'

O. Dykhtiaruk← K. Svystun

60'

V. Voitsekhovskyi← O. Sokolov

64'

Sidney↳ D. Shastal

79'

I. Hadzhuk← I. Losenko

79'

R. Lisniak← S. Kyslenko

81'

Oleg Synytsia

84'

T. Halas← O. Synytsia

85'

B. Mohylnyi← V. Katrych

85'

V. Sad← O. Piatov

90+2'

V. Farasieienko↳ B. Mohylnyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InhuletsLivyi

Overview

62%Possession38%

6Total Shots13

1.15Expected Goals (xG)1.62

4Corners1

13Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target4

2Off Target4

1Blocked5

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

442Total Passes278

353Accurate Passes206

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2