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Inhulets vs Kremin' — Persha Liga 2019

Inhulets
Inhulets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kremin'
Kremin'
8/3/2020Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 28Stadion Inhulets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Inhulets67%
×Draw20%
Kremin'14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inhulets
2.13
Kremin'
0.85

Inhulets creates 151% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

creates per match

Inhulets
2.02
Kremin'
0.86

allows per match

Inhulets
0.84
Kremin'
2.23

finishing

Inhulets+0.00on par
Kremin'+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Kremin' →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw
86%
Inhulets or Kremin'
80%
Draw or Kremin'
33%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+
42%
Kremin' wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals
88%
Inhulets 2+ goals
63%
Inhulets 3+ goals
35%
Kremin' 1+ goals
57%
Kremin' 2+ goals
21%
Kremin' 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)
83%
Kremin' (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

Kremin' away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 2.02 + Kremin' defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kremin' attack 0.86 + Inhulets defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Inhulets scores more
67%
level
20%
Kremin' scores more
14%

Inhulets at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Inhulets 3–0 Kremin'

Inhulets beat Kremin' 3-0 in Persha Liga on August 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Inhulets in Petrovo.