Inhulets 1–0 FC Clinceni: Result & Stats

Inhulets

1 – 0

FC Clinceni

7/8/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inhulets62%

×Draw26%

FC Clinceni12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InhuletsExpected goals in this matchFC Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.50

Inhulets

1.50

FC Clinceni

0.50

Inhulets creates 200% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

0.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Inhulets

1.67

FC Clinceni

1.00

allows per match

Inhulets

0.00

FC Clinceni

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inhulets+0.00on par

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

FC Clinceni →

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw

88%

Inhulets or FC Clinceni

74%

Draw or FC Clinceni

38%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+

33%

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals

78%

Inhulets 2+ goals

44%

Inhulets 3+ goals

19%

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

39%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)

84%

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 1.67 + FC Clinceni defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Clinceni attack 1.00 + Inhulets defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Inhulets scores more

62%

level

26%

FC Clinceni scores more

12%

Inhulets at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff