Inhulets' U19 1–1 Zorya Luhansk U19: Result & Stats

Inhulets' U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zorya Luhansk U19

12/7/2024

U19 League · Round 16Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inhulets' U1934%

×Draw24%

Zorya Luhansk U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inhulets' U19Expected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.63

Inhulets' U19

1.46

Zorya Luhansk U19

1.63

Zorya Luhansk U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.20

creates per match

1.38

1.87

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Inhulets' U19

1.20

Zorya Luhansk U19

1.38

allows per match

Inhulets' U19

1.87

Zorya Luhansk U19

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inhulets' U19+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets' U19 ↓

Zorya Luhansk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Inhulets' U19 or draw

58%

Inhulets' U19 or Zorya Luhansk U19

76%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk U19

66%

Winning margin

Inhulets' U19 wins by 2+

16%

Zorya Luhansk U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Inhulets' U19 1+ goals

77%

Inhulets' U19 2+ goals

43%

Inhulets' U19 3+ goals

18%

Zorya Luhansk U19 1+ goals

80%

Zorya Luhansk U19 2+ goals

48%

Zorya Luhansk U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Inhulets' U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Zorya Luhansk U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets' U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Zorya Luhansk U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets' U19 attack 1.20 + Zorya Luhansk U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zorya Luhansk U19 attack 1.38 + Inhulets' U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inhulets' U19 scores more

34%

level

24%

Zorya Luhansk U19 scores more

42%

Zorya Luhansk U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff