Inhulets' U19 2–2 Zhytomyr U19: Result & Stats

Inhulets' U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zhytomyr U19

2/21/2025

U19 League · Round 18Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inhulets' U1926%

×Draw24%

Zhytomyr U1950%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inhulets' U19Expected goals in this matchZhytomyr U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.65

Inhulets' U19

1.11

Zhytomyr U19

1.65

Zhytomyr U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.20

creates per match

1.42

1.87

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Inhulets' U19

1.20

Zhytomyr U19

1.42

allows per match

Inhulets' U19

1.87

Zhytomyr U19

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inhulets' U19+0.00on par

Zhytomyr U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets' U19 ↓

Zhytomyr U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Inhulets' U19 or draw

50%

Inhulets' U19 or Zhytomyr U19

76%

Draw or Zhytomyr U19

74%

Winning margin

Inhulets' U19 wins by 2+

10%

Zhytomyr U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Inhulets' U19 1+ goals

67%

Inhulets' U19 2+ goals

30%

Inhulets' U19 3+ goals

10%

Zhytomyr U19 1+ goals

81%

Zhytomyr U19 2+ goals

49%

Zhytomyr U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Inhulets' U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Zhytomyr U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets' U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Zhytomyr U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets' U19 attack 1.20 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.42 + Inhulets' U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inhulets' U19 scores more

26%

level

24%

Zhytomyr U19 scores more

50%

Zhytomyr U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zhytomyr U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff