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Inhulets' U19 vs Rukh Vynnyky U19 — U19 League 2023

Inhulets' U19
Inhulets' U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky U19
Rukh Vynnyky U19
3/7/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 20Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inhulets' U1930%
×Draw23%
Rukh Vynnyky U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inhulets' U19
1.34
Rukh Vynnyky U19
1.75

Rukh Vynnyky U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Inhulets' U19
1.20
Rukh Vynnyky U19
1.64

allows per match

Inhulets' U19
1.87
Rukh Vynnyky U19
1.49

finishing

Inhulets' U19+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets' U19 ↓

Rukh Vynnyky U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inhulets' U19 or draw
53%
Inhulets' U19 or Rukh Vynnyky U19
77%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky U19
70%

Winning margin

Inhulets' U19 wins by 2+
13%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Inhulets' U19 1+ goals
74%
Inhulets' U19 2+ goals
39%
Inhulets' U19 3+ goals
15%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals
83%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals
52%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Inhulets' U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets' U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Rukh Vynnyky U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets' U19 attack 1.20 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 1.64 + Inhulets' U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inhulets' U19 scores more
30%
level
23%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more
47%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inhulets' U19 vs Rukh Vynnyky U19

Inhulets' U19 beat Rukh Vynnyky U19 2-1 in U19 League on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sokil in Lviv.