Inhulets' U19 vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 — U19 League 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Inhulets' U1937%
Obolon' Kyiv U1937%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Inhulets' U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Inhulets' U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches
Obolon' Kyiv U19 away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Inhulets' U19 attack 1.20 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36
Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 0.84 + Inhulets' U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Inhulets' U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Inhulets' U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
Veres Rivne U19
Rukh Vynnyky U19
Zhytomyr U19
Zorya Luhansk U19
Kolos Kovalivka U19
Metalist 1925 U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19Obolon' Kyiv U19
Karpaty Lviv U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
Oleksandria U19
Kudrivka U19
Epitsentr U19
SK Poltava U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Inhulets' U19 host Obolon' Kyiv U19 on Thursday, 3 April 2025 at 09:00. The match is part of the U19 League 2023/2024 season.
Match Recap: Inhulets' U19 vs Obolon' Kyiv U19
Obolon' Kyiv U19 beat Inhulets' U19 2-0 in U19 League on April 3, 2025.
The match was played at Stadion Sokil in Lviv.