Ingolstadt U19 2–0 Kaiserslautern U19

Ingolstadt U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kaiserslautern U19

11/9/2025

DFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ingolstadt U1962%

×Draw21%

Kaiserslautern U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.93

Ingolstadt U19

2.00

Kaiserslautern U19

0.93

Ingolstadt U19 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.25

0.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.00

Kaiserslautern U19

1.25

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

0.60

Kaiserslautern U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

83%

Ingolstadt U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

79%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

38%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

38%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

86%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

59%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

32%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

61%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

24%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.00 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.25 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

62%

level

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

17%

Ingolstadt U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff