Ingolstadt U19 10–0 Hessen Kassel U19

Ingolstadt U19

FT

10 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Hessen Kassel U19

M. Udebuluzor 87', 81'

D. Sekulovic 74'

J. Perconti 71'

J. Krupa 59', 7', 4'

F. Keidel 57'

B. Causevic 38'

G. Conti 14'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ingolstadt U1983%

×Draw10%

Hessen Kassel U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.55

0.95

Ingolstadt U19

3.55

Hessen Kassel U19

0.95

Ingolstadt U19 creates 274% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 10 away

2.01

creates per match

0.50

1.41

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

94%

Ingolstadt U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

90%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

17%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

67%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

97%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

86%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

67%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

61%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

25%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.55

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

83%

level

10%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

6%

Ingolstadt U19 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Krupa

7'

J. Krupa

14'

G. Conti

21'

D. Farcas← H. Eckhardt

38'

B. Causevic

53'

M. Udebuluzor← V. Hoti

57'

F. Keidel

59'

J. Krupa

66'

T. Trittel← S. Yigitoglu

70'

D. Sekulovic← G. Conti

71'

J. Perconti

74'

D. Sekulovic

78'

I. Madougou← B. Causevic

81'

M. Udebuluzor

87'

B. Ališanović← J. Perconti

87'

M. Udebuluzor

Ingolstadt

Hessen

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Perconti

Schmid

⚽

Keidel

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

Causevic

Manager: F. Reichler

53'▲M. Udebuluzor←▼V. Hoti

70'▲D. Sekulovic←▼G. Conti

78'▲I. Madougou←▼B. Causevic

87'▲B. Ališanović←▼J. Perconti

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

UdebuluzorSekulovicMadougouAlišanovićBrunnerLeimeisterAtak

Manager: A. Noja

21'▲D. Farcas←▼H. Eckhardt

66'▲T. Trittel←▼S. Yigitoglu

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

FarcasTrittelFerl

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 10-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Krupa (4', 7', 59'), G. Conti (14'), B. Causevic (38'), F. Keidel (57'), J. Perconti (71'), D. Sekulovic (74'), M. Udebuluzor (81', 87').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19