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Ingolstadt U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Ingolstadt U19
Ingolstadt U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
10/8/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Ingolstadt U1943%
×Draw23%
Heidenheim U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt U19
1.79
Heidenheim U19
1.56

Ingolstadt U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 71 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19
2.01
Heidenheim U19
1.68

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19
1.45
Heidenheim U19
1.58

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par
Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw
66%
Ingolstadt U19 or Heidenheim U19
77%
Draw or Heidenheim U19
57%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+
23%
Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals
83%
Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals
53%
Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals
26%
Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
79%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
46%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more
43%
level
23%
Heidenheim U19 scores more
34%

Ingolstadt U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Ingolstadt U19 1–2 Heidenheim U19

Heidenheim U19 beat Ingolstadt U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.