Ingolstadt U19 1–0 Darmstadt 98 U19: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Darmstadt 98 U19

A. Llugiqi 53'

10/17/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ingolstadt U1952%

×Draw21%

Darmstadt 98 U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.48

Ingolstadt U19

2.13

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.48

Ingolstadt U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 48 away

2.01

creates per match

1.56

1.41

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

73%

Ingolstadt U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

79%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

48%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

31%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

88%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

63%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

35%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

77%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

43%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

52%

level

21%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

27%

Ingolstadt U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

A. Llugiqi

57'

I. Karaogul← G. Zirngast

70'

I. Madougou← J. Krupa

74'

D. Šumak← C. Riedel

74'

Lian Rodriguez← F. Phlepsen

82'

K. Paller← D. Dei

87'

S. Güven← N. Bauer

89'

F. Willibald← F. Keidel

Ingolstadt

Darmstadt

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Pätzold

57'▲I. Karaogul←▼G. Zirngast

70'▲I. Madougou←▼J. Krupa

89'▲F. Willibald←▼F. Keidel

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

KaraogulMadougouWillibaldBäßlerRiedlWagnerDehler

Manager: R. Hasa

74'▲D. Šumak←▼C. Riedel

74'▲Lian Rodriguez←▼F. Phlepsen

82'▲K. Paller←▼D. Dei

87'▲S. Güven←▼N. Bauer

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

ŠumakRodriguezPallerGüvenSamarelliUzunhasanogluStreller

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Darmstadt 98 U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 17, 2020.

Goals: A. Llugiqi (53').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19