Ingolstadt U19 3–6 Augsburg U19: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchAugsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.61

Ingolstadt U19

2.02

Augsburg U19

1.61

Ingolstadt U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

2.01

creates per match

1.81

1.41

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Augsburg U19

1.81

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Augsburg U19

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

69%

Ingolstadt U19 or Augsburg U19

78%

Draw or Augsburg U19

53%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

27%

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

87%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

60%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

33%

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

80%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

48%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.02

Augsburg U19 attack 1.81 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

Augsburg U19 scores more

31%

Ingolstadt U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

5'

37'

39'

40'

42'

46'

R. Domislic← F. Meikis

46'

F. Ivanović

56'

Y. Oberleitner

69'

T. Schwarzmeier← J. Hawkins

72'

D. Berisha← F. Ivanović

80'

D. Cevis

81'

F. Willibald← S. Baset

85'

A. Cisse← J. Kudala

88'

M. Müller← N. Kohlbacher

88'

T. Heckmeier← D. Cevis

Ingolstadt

Augsburg

⚽

⚽

▼

Kudala

⚽

Oberleitn

⚽

▼

Ivanović

⚽

▼

Cevis

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hawkins

⚽2

▼

Meikis

Manager: R. Pätzold

46'▲R. Domislic←▼F. Meikis

69'▲T. Schwarzmeier←▼J. Hawkins

81'▲F. Willibald←▼S. Baset

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

DomislicSchwarzmeierWillibaldBanguraPardiBrandlMühlrath

Manager: M. Lanzinger

72'▲D. Berisha←▼F. Ivanović

85'▲A. Cisse←▼J. Kudala

88'▲M. Müller←▼N. Kohlbacher

88'▲T. Heckmeier←▼D. Cevis

Augsburg U19 substitutes

BerishaCisseMüllerHeckmeierGruberFundelMüller

U19 Bundesliga: Ingolstadt U19 3–6 Augsburg U19

Augsburg U19 beat Ingolstadt U19 6-3 in U19 Bundesliga on February 16, 2020.

Goals: F. Meikis (4', 40'), J. Kudala (5'), N. Kohlbacher (37'), T. Civeja (39'), J. Hawkins (42'), F. Ivanović (46'), Y. Oberleitner (56'), D. Cevis (80').

The match was played at Audi Sportpark - Platz 5 in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Augsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Ingolstadt U19 3–6 Augsburg U19