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Augsburg U19 vs Ingolstadt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Augsburg U19
Augsburg U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ingolstadt U19
Ingolstadt U19
8/3/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 1Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Augsburg U1938%
×Draw21%
Ingolstadt U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg U19
1.95
Ingolstadt U19
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

creates per match

Augsburg U19
2.19
Ingolstadt U19
2.13

allows per match

Augsburg U19
1.94
Ingolstadt U19
1.71

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par
Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw
59%
Augsburg U19 or Ingolstadt U19
79%
Draw or Ingolstadt U19
62%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+
20%
Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals
86%
Augsburg U19 2+ goals
58%
Augsburg U19 3+ goals
31%
Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals
87%
Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals
60%
Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.94 · 72 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.19 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.13 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more
38%
level
21%
Ingolstadt U19 scores more
41%

Ingolstadt U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Augsburg U19 2 – 3 Ingolstadt U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Augsburg U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.