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Ingolstadt U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Ingolstadt U19
Ingolstadt U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
1860 München U19
1860 München U19
4/1/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 2Audi Sportpark - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ingolstadt U1948%
×Draw21%
1860 München U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt U19
2.04
1860 München U19
1.58

Ingolstadt U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19
2.01
1860 München U19
1.71

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19
1.45
1860 München U19
2.08

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par
1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw
70%
Ingolstadt U19 or 1860 München U19
79%
Draw or 1860 München U19
52%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+
28%
1860 München U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals
87%
Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals
60%
Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals
33%
1860 München U19 1+ goals
79%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
47%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)
62%
1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

1860 München U19 attack 1.71 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more
48%
level
21%
1860 München U19 scores more
30%

Ingolstadt U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs 1860 München U19

Ingolstadt U19 and 1860 München U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Audi Sportpark - Platz 5 in Ingolstadt.