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Ingolstadt II vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Preview
12:00
Weiden
Weiden
10/24/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 16
52%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
52%22%27%

Ingolstadt II have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ingolstadt II52%
×Draw22%
Weiden27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.00
Weiden
1.39

Ingolstadt II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
73%
Ingolstadt II or Weiden
78%
Draw or Weiden
48%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
30%
Weiden wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
86%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
59%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
32%
Weiden 1+ goals
75%
Weiden 2+ goals
40%
Weiden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
66%
Weiden (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.00

Weiden attack 1.32 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
52%
level
22%
Weiden scores more
27%

Ingolstadt II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDL
Weiden
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ingolstadt II host Weiden

October 24, 2026: Ingolstadt II take on Weiden in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.