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Ingolstadt II vs Neudrossenfeld — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
11/2/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II53%
×Draw21%
Neudrossenfeld25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.10
Neudrossenfeld
1.40

Ingolstadt II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Neudrossenfeld
1.35

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Neudrossenfeld
1.96

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Neudrossenfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
75%
Ingolstadt II or Neudrossenfeld
79%
Draw or Neudrossenfeld
47%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
32%
Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
88%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
62%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
35%
Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
75%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
41%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
68%
Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Neudrossenfeld away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.10

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.35 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
53%
level
21%
Neudrossenfeld scores more
25%

Ingolstadt II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt II vs Neudrossenfeld

Neudrossenfeld beat Ingolstadt II 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.