Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ingolstadt II vs Garching — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Garching
Garching
8/20/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 8BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ingolstadt II61%
×Draw20%
Garching19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.13
Garching
1.09

Ingolstadt II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.06
Garching
1.18

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.00
Garching
2.21

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
81%
Ingolstadt II or Garching
80%
Draw or Garching
39%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
38%
Garching wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
88%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
63%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
35%
Garching 1+ goals
66%
Garching 2+ goals
30%
Garching 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
77%
Garching (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Garching away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.06 + Garching defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.13

Garching attack 1.18 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
61%
level
20%
Garching scores more
19%

Ingolstadt II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Ingolstadt II 4–0 Garching

Ingolstadt II beat Garching 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.