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Ingolstadt II vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
J. Sarajlic 64'
4/6/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II49%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Regensburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.06
Fortuna Regensburg
1.56

Ingolstadt II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.27
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.50
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
71%
Ingolstadt II or Fortuna Regensburg
79%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
51%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
28%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
87%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
61%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
34%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
46%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
63%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
49%
level
21%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
29%

Ingolstadt II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
J. Sarajlic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt II vs Fortuna Regensburg

Fortuna Regensburg beat Ingolstadt II 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 6, 2024.

Goals: J. Sarajlic (64').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.