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Ingolstadt II vs Eltersdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
3/16/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28Audi Sportpark - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II40%
×Draw23%
Eltersdorf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
1.69
Eltersdorf
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Eltersdorf
1.78

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Eltersdorf
1.13

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Eltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
63%
Ingolstadt II or Eltersdorf
77%
Draw or Eltersdorf
60%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
21%
Eltersdorf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
82%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
50%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
24%
Eltersdorf 1+ goals
80%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
48%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
52%
Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
40%
level
23%
Eltersdorf scores more
37%

Ingolstadt II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt II vs Eltersdorf

Ingolstadt II beat Eltersdorf 6-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Audi Sportpark - Platz 5 in Ingolstadt.