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Ingolstadt II vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Preview
12:00
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
5/8/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32
Big match
48%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
48%22%30%

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II48%
×Draw22%
Bayern Hof30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
1.93
Bayern Hof
1.48

Ingolstadt II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
70%
Ingolstadt II or Bayern Hof
78%
Draw or Bayern Hof
52%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
27%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
85%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
57%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
30%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
77%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
43%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
62%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
48%
level
22%
Bayern Hof scores more
30%

Ingolstadt II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWDL
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ingolstadt II host Bayern Hof

May 8, 2027: Ingolstadt II take on Bayern Hof in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.