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Ingolstadt II vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
O. Drakulic 28'
M. Ekui 63'
N. Stadelmann 28'
5/10/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ingolstadt II48%
×Draw22%
Bayern Hof30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
1.96
Bayern Hof
1.50

Ingolstadt II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.27
Bayern Hof
1.49

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.50
Bayern Hof
1.64

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
70%
Ingolstadt II or Bayern Hof
78%
Draw or Bayern Hof
52%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
27%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
86%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
58%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
31%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
78%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
44%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
62%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
48%
level
22%
Bayern Hof scores more
30%

Ingolstadt II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
N. Stadelmann
28'
O. Drakulic
63'
M. Ekui
90'
T. Rausch
90'
T. Rausch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Ingolstadt II 1–2 Bayern Hof

Bayern Hof beat Ingolstadt II 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 10, 2025.

Goals: N. Stadelmann (28'), O. Drakulic (28'), M. Ekui (63').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.