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Ingolstadt II vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Preview
16:15
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
4/27/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30
Big match
49%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
49%22%30%

Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II49%
×Draw22%
ASV Neumarkt30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.00
ASV Neumarkt
1.52

Ingolstadt II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
70%
Ingolstadt II or ASV Neumarkt
78%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
51%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
28%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
86%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
59%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
32%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
78%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
45%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
62%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.00

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
49%
level
22%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
30%

Ingolstadt II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDL
Neumarkt
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ingolstadt II vs ASV Neumarkt — Match Preview

Ingolstadt II face ASV Neumarkt on April 27, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.