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ASV Neumarkt vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
M. Misetic 74'
S. Mjaki 13'
D. Sekulovic 88'
8/12/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Sportanlage Neumarkt - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ASV Neumarkt39%
×Draw23%
Ingolstadt II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.67
Ingolstadt II
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
62%
ASV Neumarkt or Ingolstadt II
77%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
61%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
20%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
81%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
50%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
23%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
81%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
49%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
51%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
39%
level
23%
Ingolstadt II scores more
38%

ASV Neumarkt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. Mjaki
74'
M. Misetic
88'
D. Sekulovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ASV Neumarkt 2–1 Ingolstadt II

ASV Neumarkt beat Ingolstadt II 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Mjaki (13'), M. Misetic (74'), D. Sekulovic (88').

The match was played at Sportanlage Neumarkt - Platz 1 in Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz.