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Ingolstadt II vs Abtswind — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Abtswind
Abtswind
L. Klanac 90'
B. Ozturk 13'
J. Enzmann 36'
10/26/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18Audi Sportpark - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ingolstadt II43%
×Draw23%
Abtswind34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
1.77
Abtswind
1.56

Ingolstadt II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.27
Abtswind
1.62

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.50
Abtswind
1.27

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Abtswind+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Abtswind →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
66%
Ingolstadt II or Abtswind
77%
Draw or Abtswind
57%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
23%
Abtswind wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
83%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
53%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
26%
Abtswind 1+ goals
79%
Abtswind 2+ goals
46%
Abtswind 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
56%
Abtswind (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Abtswind away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + Abtswind defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.77

Abtswind attack 1.62 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
43%
level
23%
Abtswind scores more
34%

Ingolstadt II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
B. Ozturk
36'
J. Enzmann
85'
90'
L. Klanac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt II vs Abtswind

Ingolstadt II beat Abtswind 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 26, 2024.

Goals: B. Ozturk (13'), J. Enzmann (36'), L. Klanac (90').

The match was played at Audi Sportpark - Platz 5 in Ingolstadt.