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Ingolstadt II vs 1. SC Feucht — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
1. SC Feucht
1. SC Feucht
F. Cavadias 58', 50'
J. Krupa 35', 26'
T. Ucuncu 56'
T. Sormaz 18'
9/8/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ingolstadt II59%
×Draw19%
1. SC Feucht22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.45
1. SC Feucht
1.44

Ingolstadt II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.27
1. SC Feucht
1.37

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.50
1. SC Feucht
2.63

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

1. SC Feucht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
78%
Ingolstadt II or 1. SC Feucht
81%
Draw or 1. SC Feucht
41%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
38%
1. SC Feucht wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
91%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
70%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
44%
1. SC Feucht 1+ goals
76%
1. SC Feucht 2+ goals
42%
1. SC Feucht 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
73%
1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

1. SC Feucht away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.45

1. SC Feucht attack 1.37 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
59%
level
19%
1. SC Feucht scores more
22%

Ingolstadt II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
T. Sormaz
26'
J. Krupa
35'
J. Krupa
50'
F. Cavadias
56'
T. Ucuncu
58'
F. Cavadias

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt II vs 1. SC Feucht

Ingolstadt II beat 1. SC Feucht 4-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 8, 2023.

Goals: T. Sormaz (18'), J. Krupa (26', 35'), F. Cavadias (50', 58'), T. Ucuncu (56').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.