Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indy Eleven vs Ventura County — USL Championship 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ventura County
Ventura County
4/3/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 6Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Indy Eleven50%
×Draw23%
Ventura County27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.77
Ventura County
1.25

Indy Eleven creates 42% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 77 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Ventura County
1.39

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Ventura County
2.04

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
73%
Indy Eleven or Ventura County
77%
Draw or Ventura County
50%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
27%
Ventura County wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
83%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
53%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
26%
Ventura County 1+ goals
71%
Ventura County 2+ goals
36%
Ventura County 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
65%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
50%
level
23%
Ventura County scores more
27%

Indy Eleven at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 1–1 Ventura County

Indy Eleven and Ventura County drew 1-1 in USL Championship on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.