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Indy Eleven vs Union Omaha — US Open Cup 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Union Omaha
Union Omahaadvanced
3/31/2026US Open CupUS Open Cup · Round of 64Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Indy Eleven46%
×Draw23%
Union Omaha31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.73
Union Omaha
1.39

Indy Eleven creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.67
Union Omaha
2.10

allows per match

Indy Eleven
0.67
Union Omaha
1.80

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
69%
Indy Eleven or Union Omaha
77%
Draw or Union Omaha
54%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
24%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
52%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
25%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
75%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
40%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
59%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.67 + Union Omaha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Union Omaha attack 2.10 + Indy Eleven defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
46%
level
23%
Union Omaha scores more
31%

Indy Eleven at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indy Eleven vs Union Omaha

Union Omaha beat Indy Eleven 2-1 in US Open Cup on March 31, 2026.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.